The blueberry world is moving at two speeds. While global production continues to expand and is expected to exceed three million tons by 2029, profitability for producers is becoming the biggest concern. In Southern Europe, however, consumption figures paint a much more optimistic picture: Spain, Italy, and Portugal are importing record quantities, and the blue fruit has become a staple in shopping baskets.
According to the latest industry reports, global supply has soared to 2,33 million tons by 2025, and 45.000 hectares remain under cultivation. This fruit surplus, coupled with the adverse weather conditions affecting countries like Peru, is prompting significant adjustments to export schedules. Meanwhile, Western Europe is becoming a major draw for producers from around the world.
The Peruvian campaign is cooling down
The Proarándanos trade association has revised its forecasts for the 2026/27 season downwards. It no longer expects to reach the 404.000 tons it predicted in August, but now estimates a harvest of 382.000 tons , a 6% decrease. The reason is none other than weather anomalies, with El Niño tightening the screws in the final stretch of the cycle, affecting Peru, the world's largest exporter of blueberries.
The start was deceptive. Up to week 35, Peru had exported 95.000 tons, 48% more than the previous season, but that only provided a head start. The real blow came from week 36 onwards , when the available volume dropped significantly. The peak shipments, which last season reached 20.900 tons in a single week, now fell to 16.500 tons and shifted to week 42. In short, the initial pace didn't reflect a good harvest, but rather an early one.
The organic sector is not spared either. Organic blueberry exports have plummeted 18% to 25.000 tons, and the peak season has been delayed until week 48, with a mere 1.200 tons per week compared to over 1.900 tons last year. The industry is not ruling out a fifth review in October if the weather continues to be unfavorable.
Europe drives consumption
While Peru is cutting back, Western Europe is in absorption mode. According to the IBO Global Blueberry Report 2026, Spanish imports grew by 35% to 59.580 tons, with nearly 70% of that volume coming from Morocco. But it's worth noting that not all of it is re-export: direct purchases from Peru quadrupled between 2023 and 2025, demonstrating that the Spanish market has a real hunger for blueberries.
Italy is not far behind: imports have increased by 45% to 18.580 tons. Portugal leads the way with a 55% increase, although from a smaller base. Interestingly, these countries not only import but also produce and export, yet domestic consumption is growing faster than local supply . The fruit is now available year-round, and this has changed the way Mediterranean consumers shop, seeking to take advantage of the benefits of blueberries.
Mexico and Chile are looking for a niche
Across the Atlantic, Mexico is regaining its export momentum. Aneberries confirms that 72.900 tons were shipped to the United States and other markets last year, a 15% increase over the previous season. The key has been capitalizing on supply gaps in California due to weather conditions, and now the strategy focuses on more moderate growth, around 5%, with an emphasis on premium quality and new varieties.
Chile, for its part, has just opened its market to Brazil and now has another destination in South America: Paraguay. Since September 1st, Chilean blueberries can enter the country by land thanks to a phytosanitary protocol that streamlines procedures. Shorter logistics mean less spoilage and better condition upon arrival , crucial for such a perishable fruit. Of course, strict controls against the European grapevine moth will have to be implemented, but the neighboring market is already attracting the interest of major supermarket chains.
The challenge for European producers
Given this situation, European producers have to find creative solutions. Poland, the continent's largest producer, yields between 62.000 and 64.000 tons across approximately 13.000 hectares, but the average farm size is less than 1.5 hectares. This fragmentation hinders investment in refrigeration, sorting machinery, and harvesting technology. Therefore, the future lies in forming groups, sharing infrastructure, and selling collectively to achieve economies of scale without expanding their acreage.
Proximity to European markets is an advantage that no distant competitor has. But that's not enough: it's essential to choose varieties that can withstand transport and shelf life, and to invest in mechanization and precision irrigation. Quality will be the only weapon to compete against regions that produce more cheaply and in larger volumes, even incorporating new genetic varieties.
In short, blueberries have become a global business where simply producing them is no longer enough; planning, coordination, and adapting to market demands are essential. The upcoming season promises to be exciting, with a landscape where Peru is losing ground, Europe is gaining strength, and producers who can innovate will have a significant impact.
